{"id":8187,"date":"2022-02-27T10:38:15","date_gmt":"2022-02-27T15:38:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greaterlouisville.com\/?p=8187"},"modified":"2022-02-27T10:39:42","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T15:39:42","slug":"us-chamber-outlook-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greaterlouisville.com\/general\/us-chamber-outlook-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"US CHAMBER OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA\u2019S INVASION OF UKRAINE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This information appeared in a US Chamber newsletter on Friday, February 23, 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u201cInternational order is like oxygen\u2014we don\u2019t notice it until it\u2019s not there.\u201d &#8211; Dr. Richard Haass<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Russia\u2019s unprovoked war<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What we are witnessing in\u00a0Eastern Europe is a clear violation of Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is a serious breach of international law. As business leaders who value free enterprise and as proponents of democracy, we should all be concerned.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:\u00a0<\/strong>For\u00a0those in Ukraine, it is a direct threat to their freedom, their national identity, and their lives. For businesses operating around the world, it is yet another driver of uncertainty and instability.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Big picture:\u00a0<\/strong>The Chamber believes in a world where democratic countries, following the rule of law and the free enterprise system, can be free and prosper. Right now, all face growing threats.<\/p>\n<p>We stand with Ukraine, and we support the U.S. government and our allies taking swift and meaningful action to punish Russia for this invasion and deter future aggression.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s next:\u00a0<\/strong>We are helping our members prepare for the economic fallout from this ongoing conflict. We are also providing\u00a0input to the administration and Congress to ensure the measures they take don\u2019t inadvertently undermine U.S. foreign policy or economic interests.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>What the experts are saying<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Thursday night, we hosted a call with Dr. Richard Haass and business leaders to share his take on the situation. He is a veteran diplomat, a prominent voice on American foreign policy, and President of the Council on Foreign Relations. Here\u2019s some of what he had to say:<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cThis is a totally unwarranted war of choice.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Haass shared his belief that President Putin is \u201cdetermined to undo a lot of history\u2014he sees this as essential to his legacy.\u201d He characterized Putin\u2019s decision-making as \u201cdifferent and worrisome\u201d and highlighted the ways Putin has consolidated power in Russia over recent years to free himself from institutional constraints.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u201cThis is a reminder of how much we all depend on order.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Why it matters:\u00a0He described Russia\u2019s aggression as a \u201cmajor challenge to the world order\u2019\u2019\u2014a system all businesses depend on. Friends and foes around the world are watching closely to see how democratic allies respond.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What we can do:<\/strong>\u00a0Dr. Haass called on the business community to be vocal in this crisis, saying \u201cI think the business community is central to our potential to succeed here&#8230; I would love to see the business community with a bigger voice.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The economic consequences of war<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Russia may only represent 1% of global GDP\u2014roughly equivalent to Florida\u2019s economy\u2014but the sanctions necessary to respond to Russia\u2019s aggression will have a global economic impact. Here\u2019s what to watch for:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Financial sanctions on Russian banks:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The administration has announced sanctions on the top 10 Russian financial institutions, covering more than 80% of all banking assets in the country, and impacting affiliates of U.S. and other international businesses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong>\u00a0This move effectively cuts off Russian banks from access to the U.S. and European financial systems and limits the ability of Russian firms to do business internationally. It also will affect Western companies that have made investments in Russia.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s next:\u00a0<\/strong>In order to effectively implement these sanctions, some businesses have requested a \u201cwind-down\u201d period for existing banking relationships. Officials seem\u00a0to understand the importance of such a provision, and the Chamber is working with the Treasury Department to address this concern.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Export controls on tech products:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The administration has announced export controls to block the sale of select technologies to Russia\u2019s defense industry, including shipbuilding, maritime, and aerospace firms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:\u00a0<\/strong>These sanctions will restrict the export of select U.S. technologies to Russia. Even products manufactured or assembled elsewhere could be blocked if they contain U.S. components or if they are made using U.S. software or capital goods. This move will severely limit Russia\u2019s access to critical technologies.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s next:<\/strong>\u00a0The administration is emphasizing publicly and privately that it has tools available to sanction firms that fail to comply with these rules, and other countries are aligned on their implementation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Big picture:<\/strong>\u00a0Some of these sanctions could impact businesses that don\u2019t export to Russia or source inputs from the country. Producers of semiconductors, computers, and telecommunications equipment should examine their production chains and distribution networks and consider their compliance obligations.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Global energy wake-up call<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Current sanctions do not target the energy and commodities sector as the U.S. and our allies look to balance inflicting harm on Russia\u2019s economy with addressing global energy needs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong>\u00a0Oil quickly rose to about $100 per barrel as markets braced for the economic impact of Russia\u2019s invasion. With a tight market and limited spare capacity for increased global production in the short-term, any additional disruptions or restrictions will put further upward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s next:<\/strong>\u00a0To blunt potential supply disruptions, immediate steps are being taken to coordinate the release of crude oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserves around the world.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Big picture:<\/strong>\u00a0This experience is a wake-up call that the U.S. must use its leadership in energy production to be energy self-sufficient at home while providing energy security to allies and trading partners. We need a more balanced conversation about how to have smart policies on climate while promoting energy resilience and national security. We must be able to do both.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Heightened cyber concerns<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Russian military and intelligence units have long used cyber warfare to advance their national interests. Ukraine has suffered several denial-of-service attacks against government websites, and multiple cybersecurity firms have reported a second, destructive \u201cwiper attack\u201d against hundreds of computers. It is not clear whether the latter attack will be as widespread as the NotPetya malware attack of 2017, but we are following the situation closely.<\/p>\n<p>So far, we have not seen reports of massive full-scale cyberattacks to debilitate Ukraine\u2019s command and control structures or communications networks, but these types of attacks are a distinct possibility as the situation develops.\u00a0The U.S. may also see spillover effects in the near and medium-term from Russian cyberattacks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What we\u2019re watching:\u00a0<\/strong>The U.S. government is not yet reporting any specific, credible, or direct cyber threats, but this could change rapidly.\u00a0One\u00a0U.S. Chamber member with extensive experience in securing industrial control networks advised that Russia has been actively probing networks in several critical infrastructure sectors in the U.S. since October.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s next:\u00a0<\/strong>Cyber officials from the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the NSA are advising government and private-sector entities to strengthen their cyber posture amid heightened risks. All businesses\u00a0should expect that as U.S. and allied sanctions kick in, adverse cyber activity could ratchet-up as well.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Go deeper:\u00a0<\/strong>CISA has initiated a\u00a0\u201cShields Up\u201d campaign with specific guidance and actions that businesses can take to shore up their defenses in advance of any potential malicious cyber activity. Learn more\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/click.uschamber.com\/?qs=7a2ff66c85827596669239129c8dde9757cbb5e8363c9833432f7e44041a62e69ce073e8d7eee0bd3322b5da1445840084de941b5d8110bd\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>All eyes on Washington<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>On Tuesday, March 1, President Biden will address the nation\u2014and the world\u2014in his State of the Union address.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What we\u2019re listening for:<\/strong>\u00a0In addition to the immediate crisis unfolding in Ukraine, we will look for him to address the challenges facing businesses here at home, including inflationary pressures, workforce shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, anti-competitive policies, rising fuel costs, and more.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong>\u00a0As global economic risks rise, our domestic policy decisions must not further stoke uncertainty or threaten the fragile recovery. The Chamber is committed to working with the administration and lawmakers of both political parties to ensure our nation can withstand these turbulent times and emerge stronger on the other side.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This information appeared in a US Chamber newsletter on Friday, February 23, 2022. \u201cInternational order is like oxygen\u2014we don\u2019t notice it until it\u2019s not there.\u201d &#8211; Dr. Richard Haass &nbsp; Russia\u2019s unprovoked war What we are witnessing in\u00a0Eastern Europe is a clear violation of Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,247],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-advocacy-and-legislation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.12 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US CHAMBER OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA\u2019S INVASION OF UKRAINE &ndash; One Louisville<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This information appeared in a US Chamber newsletter on Friday, February 23, 2022. \u201cInternational order is like oxygen\u2014we don\u2019t notice it until it\u2019s not\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.greaterlouisville.com\/general\/us-chamber-outlook-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US CHAMBER OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA\u2019S INVASION OF UKRAINE &ndash; 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